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Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. 2020 Election (1210) The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. 108,000 people. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Still, the state's worth watching. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Twitter Twitter To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Dont simply gloss over this. It is easy to gloss over this. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). University of Denver, 2. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 2. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Jeff. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. All Rights Reserved. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Nobody forgot about politics.". Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. 3. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Their hopes are real. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Go on, look them up! Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. 11. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Just how big is it? Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. That's 14 in a row. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. What, if anything, did we miss? 2023 BBC. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Have you looked at the results of these counties? The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Their concerns are real. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. These counties could play an . It gets a lot more interesting. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? "They followed through the whole four years. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Hillary Clinton (578) Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. They simply vote on merit. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. They're just facts about the vote. The divisions were everywhere. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance 5. The matters that way on their minds are real. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. So, where are the bellwether counties? Do you know this baby? But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. What are your thoughts on this article? (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment.